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This software,
OPFor (Oil Price Forecast) system, is developed mainly for
oil price prediction including long term and short term.
For long term prediction, it bases on a special forecasting
model for future oil price. The model applies pattern
matching technique to multi-step prediction of crude oil
prices and proposes a new approach: generalized pattern
matching based on genetic algorithm (GPMGA), which can be
used to forecast future crude oil price based on historical
observations. This software can automatically detect the
most similar pattern in contemporary crude oil prices from
the historical data. Based on the similar historical
pattern, a multi-step prediction of future crude oil prices
can be figured out. In GPMGA modeling process, the
traditional pattern matching is not directly employed.
Historical data is transformed to larger or smaller scales
in the x-axis and the y-axis directions, so that a
generalized price pattern reflecting current price movement
can be obtained. This treatment overcomes the local
deficiency of the traditional pattern modeling in
recognition system approach (PMRS), and in addition to this,
a matched historical pattern in a larger pattern size can be
found. Since the approach takes not only historical
similarities but also differences into account, the concept
of
“generalized
pattern matching”
is proposed here. It proves a new basis for multi-step
prediction by finding out more essential similarities
through various transformations.
For short term prediction, the wavelet technique is
applied. First, oil price is decomposed into time series of
different frequencies. Then, these series are approximated
separately by sin function. Finally, the forecast result is
obtained combining above approximations.
In addition, this software is designed to perform
some basic tasks for the processing of oil price data. For
example, it consists of a database of SQL to store all kinds
of oil price and is able to transform the daily data into
yearly or monthly data, some basic statistical function
realized as well.
Six components are included in OPFor whose
framework Fig.1 illustrates.
Several screen snapshots are shown in Fig.2 which
is the login interface of OPFor and Fig.3 when OPFor is
plotting.

Fig.1 The framework of OPFor

Fig.2 The login view of OPFor

Fig.3 The running mode of OPFor
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